Tesla’s ambitious humanoid robot project Optimus could move from research labs into actual real-world industrial use in the next two years, as stated by analysts at investment bank Piper Sandler. In a research note released this week, the company estimated that by 2026, Optimus would begin to stage and transfer components throughout the production plants of Tesla. This achievement would accelerate the automation of Tesla and the broader adoption of humanoid robots in manufacturing.
Optimus: From Concept to Factory Floor
Launched by Elon Musk during the Tesla AI Day in 2021, Optimus has been promoted as a versatile humanoid robot that can perform routine, hazardous, or otherwise repetitive tasks. Tesla has framed the project as an extension of its ability to achieve success in artificial intelligence, computer vision, and complex manufacturing.
Although the idea has long been dismissed by skeptics as too ambitious, Tesla has managed to demonstrate improvements. Recent prototypes by the company are capable of walking, manipulating objects, and performing basic coordination tasks. Shifting to participation in the real factories and Tesla would be a big step.
Piper Sandler researchers think that milestone may be reached by 2026, when Optimus will run logistics tasks, such as staging parts, transportation of products, and assembly process support. These applications are in line with the initially developed capabilities of the robot and provide Tesla with valuable productivity.
The Economics of a $100K Robot
Among the most memorable assertions made in the Piper Sandler note was that Optimus may be worth the estimated price of its projected $100,000 if it can work 18-hour shifts. The calculation is easy: an anthropomorphic robot capable of resiliently executing the tasks without breaks, medical expenses, or turnover can provide work efficiency several times higher than that of an average human employee.
Optimus would provide over 6,500 hours of labor per year (at 18 hours per day), which is approximately twice the amount of labor a full-time human employee will offer. When the wages, benefits, and labor shortages are factored in within the manufacturing sector, the economics start to take shape.
The analysts warned, though, that such a value proposition will highly rely on reliability, safety, and the scope of tasks Optimus is capable of executing. Provided that the robot has been restricted to the most basic of tasks, or that it generates a high level of downtime and repairs, a payback would be less effective.
Potential Impact on Tesla’s Manufacturing Model
The factories of Tesla are already fully automated, and robotics and AI-controlled systems are already widely used in the automotive industry. The inclusion of humanoid robots into this environment may even decrease the number of bottlenecks, increase flexibility, and decrease the reliance on labor in the manufacturing and production hotspots.
With Optimus to stage parts, Tesla would be able to simplify processes that the more conventional industrial robots would fail to master, particularly in vibrant workspaces demanding maneuverability and skill. A humanoid robot can move through spaces designed by humans, to reach into bins as well as to be able to adapt in real time to changes, unlike fixed robotic arms, which have a restricted ability to move.
If successful, Optimus would represent a pillar of the long-term vision of Tesla of the machine that builds the machine, through which highly automated factories would make electric vehicles and energy products with little human intervention.
