Tesla is back in the spotlight among both Wall Street and retail investors, as sentiment remains bullish on the long-awaited robotaxi and progress in self-driving technology. Analyst Peter DiCarlo has made headlines with a bold prediction that Tesla’s stock may reach $500 by September and potentially climb to $650 by October. The primary catalyst is expected to be the launch of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas.
On Wall Street Bets, conversations around Tesla call options with aggressive $750 strike prices have surged. Most investors cited the upcoming robotaxi rollout and expected FSD revenue as the main drivers behind the stock’s anticipated rise.
The Market Driver Robotaxi Rollout
As DiCarlo claims, the new Robotaxi initiative is one of the key paradigm shifts in Tesla’s business. The enabled autonomous fleet is assembled on Tesla’s most recent implementation of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and represents the initial stages of commercializing autonomous transportation at scale.
DiCarlo explained, referring to the robotaxi market, that it may fully change how investors will price Tesla. It is not all about EVs now. It is all about independent ride-hailing, AI infrastructure, and data services.
According to the reports, in Austin, the pilot program is planned to consist of a relatively small fleet of Tesla Model 3 and Model Y cars, with an enhanced version of Tesla FSD, v12.5. Initial reports indicate good performance with quantitative data during pre-launch testing, including fewer interventions by the driver and success in downtown driving.
FSD and Recurring Revenue Potential
The full self-driving technology of Tesla is still the company’s focal point. The availability of FSD has also been made more accessible by the use of a new subscription model, which costs a monthly payment of $99, and makes it accessible to a larger number of drivers, though they will not have to pay the upfront cost of purchasing the software outright.
According to industry experts, this means that in case Tesla manages to secure just 30% to 40% of its customers on the FSD subscription, as ten percent of revenue growth can provide the company with more than 10 billion annually recurring revenue. Added to the possible real estate purchases and downstream selling of data, FSD may end up becoming one of the most valuable growth opportunities of Tesla.
Outlook Tracking of stock performance and valuation
Tesla shares are currently trading at approximately $320. Down by almost 15% year-to-date. Transition to $500 would mean a 156% increase, whereas an increase to $750 in December would amount to almost a 230% hike in the present share value.
Such projections may be ambitious; not entirely new, however, to a company that flaunts traditional valuation measures. The thing about Tesla is that the company will have to deliver on its promises, especially regarding safety, its scale, and compliance with regulations in the robotaxi sector.
Nevertheless, institutional and retail traders seem to be converging in their bullish sentiment, and this is a one-of-a-kind agreement in predictions over one of the most divided stocks existing in the market.
“If Tesla successfully launches robotaxis and monetizes FSD at scale,” DiCarlo noted, “the company could enter a new phase of growth that fundamentally changes how it is valued—not just as a carmaker, but as a global AI and mobility platform.”
